Poisson xG engine

Football Season Simulator

Simulate all 38 matchdays and see how far your eleven gets.

⚽ Simulate Free

Most browser simulators multiply a rating by a constant and produce nonsense, teams scoring five a game and finishing on 200 goals. This one works off the rating difference between the two sides instead. That difference sets an expected goals value for each team, and the actual scoreline is a Poisson draw from it, so results cluster where real football clusters: 1-0, 2-1, 0-0, with the occasional rout.

Home advantage, chemistry and a difficulty handicap all feed into the same calculation. The fixture list is a proper double round-robin, so you face every opponent once at home and once away rather than playing the same club twice in a row.

Calibration

Measured across 400 simulated seasons per tier:

Weak squad (55)21 ptsrelegation fight
Mid squad (70)53 ptsmid-table
Strong squad (85)88 ptstitle contender
Elite squad (95)108 pts~5% perfect season

What you see per season

📋
Full match log

All 38 fixtures with venue, opponent and scoreline.

📊
Form strip

Win, draw and loss sequence across the whole campaign at a glance.

Goal record

Scored, conceded, goal difference and final points total.

🏆
Verdict

Title form, European push or rebuild needed, based on win rate.

Frequently asked questions

How does the season simulator work?

Each fixture is resolved independently. Your team rating plus chemistry is compared against the opponent, home advantage is applied, and expected goals for both sides are turned into a scoreline using a Poisson draw.

Is the simulation random or skill-based?

Both. A stronger, better-linked squad shifts the expected goals in your favour every match, but each individual result carries real variance, so a strong team can still drop points.

What do the difficulty levels change?

Difficulty applies a rating handicap to every opponent you face. Easy subtracts five rating points, Nightmare adds eleven, which is the difference between a comfortable title and a genuine struggle.

How many goals should a good team score?

A mid-table squad lands near 53 points with roughly even goals. A strong squad reaches around 88 points. If a simulator is giving you 200 goals in 38 games, it is not modelling football.

Can I simulate more than one season?

Yes. Career mode plays consecutive seasons with promotion, relegation, budget and reputation carrying forward between them.

Run a season

Draft an eleven, then simulate all 38 matchdays.

⚽ Start Free